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01-Nov-2017 11:58

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Much has been learned in the past half century about producing useful forecasts.

Those new to the area may be interested in answers to commonly asked questions.

The field of forecasting is concerned with approaches to determining what the future holds.

It is also concerned with the proper presentation and use of forecasts. Often forecasts are made for future values of a ; for example, the number of babies that will be born in a year, or the likely demand for compact cars.

The terms “forecast,” “prediction,” “projection,” and “prognosis” are typically used interchangeably. Alternatively, forecasts can be of one-off events such as the outcome of a union-management dispute or the performance of a new recruit.

Of course, many organizations take a shortcut and merely change the forecast.

(This is analogous to a family deciding to change the weather forecast so they can go on a picnic).

Index scores are calculated by adding the values of the explanatory variables, which may be assessed subjectively as, for example, zero or one.